Update:
Premarket : TLT is up to 124.7 from its low of 122.97 on Friday and its close of 123.3. SPY is up to 207.88 from it’s low of 207.1 on Friday and its close of 207.5. That should bode well for the closing of the SPY/TLT trade.
Wow, what a day on Friday, every thing was down, even our hedges! Literally, the only thing that did well in my portfolio was the MIC. I lost on the EU, CAD, TLT, and equities. I am posting a blog from Urban Carmel who is probably who I respect the most as a technician. Check it out, it’s a very well-balanced technical look at the current market situation.
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2015/03/weekly-market-summary.html?spref=tw
The official SPY/TLT trade at SO is down 40%. Mine is down about 19%. I will remove most if not all on any bounce. I don’t expect downside past the 50 DMA at ~206.5 without a bounce first. I have maybe 16% of the trade left on and the portions left on SPY are mostly OTM but inflated because of volatility. I’ll be monitoring and removing pieces as we go through this week. I am hoping to get out at -10 to -12%. I have 196/191s, 205/200s, 206/201s and small amounts of 207.5/202.5s in SPY and I have 126/121 127/122 in TLT. I’ll remove the trade in entirety if SPY falls below 206 and if TLT falls below 122.8. Those are my cut-offs.